Pakistan's energy sector is confronting a widening strategic dilemma in which dependence on imported fuels, structural weaknesses in the electricity system, rapid solar adoption and delayed reforms are colliding, even as policymakers seek to expand cleaner energy sources and improve long-term energy security.
The articles portray an energy landscape shaped by both external shocks and domestic policy choices. While recent improvements in hydropower generation and liquefied natural gas (RLNG) supplies have eased immediate pressure on the power system, they argue that the country's underlying vulnerabilities remain unresolved. At the same time, the rapid expansion of solar energy presents new operational challenges that existing infrastructure was not designed to manage.
One article attributes Pakistan's energy insecurity largely to its dependence on imported oil and gas. It notes that global supply disruptions triggered by conflict in the Middle East have disproportionately affected energy-importing countries, increasing costs and disrupting supply chains. Citing the International Energy Agency, the article states that oil and natural gas continue to dominate Pakistan's primary energy supply, while hydropower remains the country's principal renewable source, with wind and solar gradually expanding their share. It also highlights that more than 40 million people still lack access to electricity and around half the population remains without access to clean cooking facilities.
Electricity tariffs have risen sharply over recent years. According to the article, average electricity prices increased from around Rs16-17 per kilowatt-hour in 2020 to Rs33.38 per kilowatt-hour by April 2026. The increase is linked to long-standing efforts to achieve full cost recovery through higher tariffs rather than structural reforms, alongside continued borrowing to manage circular debt. The article notes that circular debt, estimated at Rs2.5 trillion in 2024, has remained a persistent challenge despite repeated borrowing by successive governments.
The articles identify several structural constraints within the power sector. Capacity payment obligations under contracts signed with Independent Power Producers and later energy projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor are described as limiting flexibility in shifting towards alternative energy sources. They also point to demand projections that failed to materialise, particularly under long-term LNG import arrangements, as well as policy decisions that increased costs, including the location of certain coal-fired power plants and incentives that accelerated rooftop solar adoption while reducing grid demand.
Recent operational data nevertheless suggest some short-term improvement. National grid electricity generation reached 12.3 billion kilowatt-hours during May 2026, with the gap between actual and planned generation narrowing substantially from April. Hydropower emerged as the principal source of relief, accounting for 33 percent of the generation mix and exceeding reference levels by around 10 percent. RLNG-based generation also recovered after two months of shortages, raising its share of generation to 12 percent, although it remained below planned levels.
Despite these gains, imported coal continued to play a larger role than anticipated, accounting for about 14 percent of electricity generation and remaining significantly above planning assumptions. The articles argue that the issue is no longer simply one of fuel availability but of system flexibility, particularly as electricity demand patterns change. According to the analysis, Pakistan's expanding rooftop and off-grid solar capacity has substantially reduced daytime demand on the national grid while creating steep increases in electricity demand after sunset. This "duck curve" has forced conventional generation sources to ramp up output rapidly during evening hours. With RLNG supplies still constrained, imported coal plants are increasingly being used to meet those peaks, contributing to higher fuel costs and continued positive fuel cost adjustments for consumers. The articles also point to transmission bottlenecks that limit efficient movement of electricity during periods of peak demand.
Another article examines the broader implications of the global solar transition. It argues that although solar photovoltaic technology has become one of the world's cheapest sources of electricity and is central to reducing dependence on fossil fuels, a new environmental challenge is emerging as the first generation of large-scale solar panels approaches the end of its operational life. The International Renewable Energy Agency estimates that by 2050 global solar panel waste could reach 78 to 80 million metric tons.
The articles note that retired panels contain valuable materials, including glass, aluminium, copper, silver and silicon, alongside small quantities of hazardous substances such as lead and cadmium. They argue that without effective recycling systems, countries risk replacing one environmental challenge with another. Proposed measures include Extended Producer Responsibility legislation, investment in recycling facilities, manufacturing designs that facilitate disassembly and procurement policies favouring recycled materials and end-of-life recovery. Pakistan is cited as one of several countries experiencing rapid rooftop solar growth while lacking significant recycling infrastructure for end-of-life panels
Alongside these broader policy debates, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's Provincial Energy Development Organisation reported progress on several hydropower projects. According to PEDO Chief Executive Officer Engineer Anwar-ul-Haq, construction of multiple projects has entered its final stages and is expected to generate more than Rs10 billion in additional provincial receipts upon completion. He said PEDO currently generates annual income exceeding Rs6 billion for the province.
Speaking at the same event, Provincial Energy and Power Minister Nazir Ahmad Abbasi described hydropower, alongside the province's oil and gas resources, as strategic assets capable of supporting economic development. He said PEDO would be further strengthened and endorsed several employee demands, while emphasising merit and transparency in the organisation's operations.
Taken together, the articles suggest that Pakistan's energy future will depend not only on securing fuel supplies but also on modernising the electricity system, improving transmission flexibility, expanding renewable energy responsibly and addressing the long-term environmental consequences of the clean energy transition. They argue that while temporary improvements in hydropower and LNG availability have eased immediate pressures, deeper structural reforms remain essential to achieving lasting energy security.