Pakistan's cotton industry is being squeezed by extreme heat, pest pressure, weak seed quality and regulatory shortcomings, with output falling by more than half from its peak and the resulting shortfall estimated to cost the economy USD2-3 billion a year through additional imports and lost export earnings. The decline has become particularly troubling because cotton underpins a textile sector that accounts for 60 percent of Pakistan's export earnings. Cotton production, once around 14 million bales at its peak, is estimated at 6.85 million bales in 2025-26, according to a report by the Overseas Investors Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OICCI).

The problem is no longer simply one of agricultural productivity. Pakistan's principal cotton belt is confronting temperatures at which the plant's reproductive processes begin to break down. South Punjab, particularly Multan, Bahawalpur and Dera Ghazi Khan, is among the country's most important producing regions. Temperatures during the May-to-July cotton season typically range from 35°C to 42°C but can climb to 45°C-50°C during severe heatwaves. Dry weather, low humidity and intense solar radiation compound the strain, while unusually warm nights deprive plants of the cooling needed to recover. Recent conditions have been particularly harsh. Daytime temperatures in South Punjab have reached 48°C and nighttime readings 31°C. Once nighttime temperatures exceed 28°C, cotton flowers and squares begin to shed, and the effects of the extreme conditions are already visible in the crop. Sindh faces much the same threat. Cotton-growing districts including Sukkur, Khairpur, Nawabshah, Sanghar and Mirpurkhas, as well as the Hyderabad division, generally experience temperatures of 36°C-43°C during the season, with severe heatwaves sometimes pushing readings to 45°C or higher. Long summers, scant rainfall and a hot, dry climate make heat stress an enduring constraint.

Cotton prefers considerably milder conditions. Its optimal temperature range is 25°C-32°C. Above that, reproductive performance progressively deteriorates: pollen development starts declining at 34°C, germination is significantly affected at 37°C and becomes severely weakened at 43°C. At 47°C, pollen activity almost stops, disrupting boll formation and sharply reducing yields. The consequences extend beyond the number of bales harvested. Excessive heat causes flowers and bolls to fall, encourages premature boll opening and damages plant growth. It can also aggravate whitefly infestation and impair seed germination. Lint loses strength, length and uniformity, making it harder for textile manufacturers to secure good-quality domestic raw material.

Pakistan's exposure is unusually severe compared with several other big cotton producers. The American Cotton Belt generally experiences temperatures of 25°C-35°C, although readings can occasionally reach 38°C-42°C. Brazil's cotton regions are mostly more moderate and humid, while China's Xinjiang region combines daytime temperatures of roughly 25°C-35°C with cooler nights. Egypt is warmer, but its overall heat stress is described as less severe than Pakistan's extreme heatwave conditions. That distinction matters for seed. Some imported varieties used in Pakistan were developed for conditions of about 38°C-40°C and, according to some experts, cannot sustain their full performance when temperatures exceed 45°C.

The mismatch raises risks to both crop volume and fibre quality. Climate, however, is only part of the explanation for the collapse. OICCI's 'Seeds of Growth' report attributes declining cotton production to climate shocks, pest infestation, poor seed quality and a blanket ban on certain pesticide ingredients imposed without what it describes as a science-based transition plan. More broadly, it argues that regulatory delays and inconsistent policy are holding back agriculture despite the sector contributing about 23 percent of GDP and employing 37 percent of the workforce.

Pests are an immediate concern. Agriculture experts have urged growers to intensify monitoring for whitefly, jassid, thrips and pink bollworm, warning that failure to intervene at the right stage could damage both yield and quality. Farmers have been advised to scout their fields at least twice a week, remove weeds and maintain timely irrigation because moisture-stressed plants are more susceptible to infestation. The recommendations are unusually specific. For whitefly, growers have been advised to install 20 yellow sticky traps per acre and renew their adhesive every 15 days. Chemical treatment should begin only when the economic threshold reaches five whiteflies, nymphs or a combination of both per leaf, and pesticide use should follow guidance from local Punjab Agriculture Department officials.

Repeated use of pesticides from the same chemical group is also discouraged because it can foster resistance. For pink bollworm, farmers have been advised to use pheromone traps for monitoring and control as well as Trichogramma cards as a biological measure. Integrated pest management, regular scouting and timely intervention are presented as essential safeguards. The economic stakes make recovery more than an agronomic concern. OICCI estimates that restoring production to 8-9 million bales would ease pressure on Pakistan's foreign-exchange reserves. Its wider argument is that agricultural investment depends on a more predictable regulatory environment, with time-bound approvals for seed varieties and pesticide registration among its recommendations. It also advocates action against counterfeit seed and wider access to credit for small farmers.

There are potential technological routes out of part of the difficulty. Pakistan-China collaboration is exploring the complementary characteristics of Pakistani and Chinese cotton germplasm. Chinese seeds could be tested for adaptability in Pakistan, while researchers seek varieties combining Pakistan's heat resistance with high-yield and high-quality characteristics associated with Chinese cotton. Xinjiang Agricultural University has also collaborated with Pakistani universities and has experimental fields in Faisalabad. Plans include testing mechanical cotton picking in Pakistan. North Xinjiang is reported to have mechanisation of about 90 percent, while drip irrigation, mulching and other drought-resistant and water-saving practices are among the technologies identified for possible transfer. A biotechnology centre of excellence laboratory is also due to be established at the Central Cotton Research Institute to support research, while cooperation under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor is being present ed as another avenue for modernising cotton research and development. Yet technology alone is unlikely to solve the problem. Pakistan's older, relatively integrated public-sector cotton research system weakened after 2012 amid resource constraints, leadership gaps and administrative and political interference, while the private sector has remained largely oriented towards shorter-term business models. The case being made is for biotechnology and molecular techniques to work alongside conventional field breeding, genetic improvement, testing across different environments and stronger seed-development programmes.

Higher productivity must also be paired with lower production costs. Experience cited from Turkiye suggests that resource efficiency can help: cotton grown with only two irrigations under severe water scarcity produced a yield reduction of about 9.5 percent but lowered costs by 13 percent. In Pakistan, meanwhile, Potohar areas including Attock are being identified as potentially suitable for quality seed production, with high-density planting and improved management among the approaches proposed. Pakistan therefore confronts a cotton crisis with several causes but little room for delay. Farmers are being asked to manage pests and water more precisely just as temperatures push the crop beyond its comfortable biological limits. Researchers must breed plants for harsher conditions, regulators must improve the environment for seeds and crop protection, and the industry must raise productivity while containing costs. Without progress on those fronts, a crop central to Pakistan's textile exports risks becoming incr easingly expensive to replace with imports precisely when extreme weather is making domestic production harder to sustain.