Pakistan is leaning on a single giant dam for most of its new hydroelectric capacity this year. The government plans to add 1,960 megawatts (MW) of hydropower in the 2026-27 fiscal year, according to the power-generation commissioning schedule for July 2026 to June 2027, seen by Wealth Pakistan. Three new units at the Tarbela 5th Extension Project will provide 1,530MW, or roughly 78% of the planned hydel addition.

The hydropower capacity comes from five entries being built or refurbished by the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Together they make up about 51.8% of the 3,787.24MW listed in the full commissioning schedule, making water the largest single source of new generating capacity planned for the year.

Tarbela, in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, dominates the pipeline. Each of its three new units is rated at 510MW. Their combined output alone accounts for more than 40% of all the capacity scheduled across the entire programme, regardless of fuel type.

The timetable is tightly packed into the first half of the fiscal year. Unit-I is scheduled to be commissioned in September 2026, followed by Unit-II in November and Unit-III in December. If the plan holds, all three would be running before the end of the calendar year.

The remaining two WAPDA hydropower entries in the schedule account for the other 430MW. Their share is modest compared with Tarbela, underscoring how heavily the year's hydel target rests on a single project. That concentration carries risk as well as promise. Hydropower is domestically sourced and does not depend on imported fuel, which strengthens its appeal. But any delay at Tarbela would leave a sizeable hole in the government's capacity plans, given how much of the programme depends on it.

The schedule therefore offers a clear test of WAPDA's ability to deliver large projects on time. With three units due within four months, the coming autumn will show whether Pakistan's hydropower ambitions for 2026-27 can be met as planned.