Pakistan’s Oil Demand Rises Despite Sharp Shift Away From Power Generation

Pakistan's petroleum sector recorded higher overall fuel consumption during fiscal year 2024-25, but the growth masked a significant structural shift as transport demand surged while consumption by the power and industrial sectors declined sharply, reflecting changing energy-use patterns across the economy.

According to the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority's (OGRA) State of the Regulated Petroleum Industry 2024-25 report, total consumption of petroleum products increased 5 percent during FY2024-25, rising from 15.69 million tons to 16.41 million tons. The expansion was driven primarily by the transport sector, where petroleum consumption increased 11 percent to 14.78 million tons, reinforcing its position as the largest consumer of oil products.

By contrast, demand from other sectors weakened considerably. Consumption by the power sector fell 75 percent, government usage declined 32 percent, and industrial demand contracted 16 percent, indicating reduced dependence on oil-based electricity generation and greater industrial substitution. Product-wise, high-speed diesel (HSD) and motor spirit (MS) remained the dominant fuels, with consumption rising 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Together, the two products accounted for more than 91 percent of total petroleum consumption. Motor spirit consumption reached 8.01 million tons, while HSD climbed to 6.97 million tons.

Other petroleum products moved in the opposite direction. Furnace oil consumption declined 45 percent to 0.69 million tons, light diesel oil fell 18 percent, and jet fuel consumption decreased 15 percent to 0.66 million tons. Oil marketing companies (OMCs) collectively reported sales of 16.41 million tons, with motor spirit and high-speed diesel accounting for the majority of volumes.

The competitive landscape also evolved during the year. Pakistan State Oil (PSO) remained the country's largest supplier but lost 5 percent of market share. GO emerged as the principal beneficiary, gaining 7 percent, while Cnergyico and HPL recorded modest increases. PGL and APL each lost 1 percent of market share.

Domestic refining activity also strengthened. Refinery production increased 4.91 percent to 11.20 million tons during FY2024-25. PARCO retained its position as the largest refinery with a 42 percent share of production, although its output declined 3 percent. ARL's production fell 6.3 percent, while Cnergyico recorded a 39.7 percent increase. PRL and NRL expanded production by 13.5 percent and 9.7 percent, respectively. Among refined products, production of HSD, furnace oil, motor spirit and naphtha increased, whereas jet fuel output declined. Naphtha production recorded the strongest growth, rising 59.3 percent, while jet fuel production fell 11.9 percent.

Export activity also reflected changing domestic demand. Naphtha exports increased 31 percent, while furnace oil exports rose 50 percent, largely because of lower consumption by the power sector. Imports continued to expand across several categories. Crude oil imports increased 11 percent to 9.33 million tons, while imports of finished petroleum products rose 18 percent to 7.80 million tons. Imports of motor spirit grew 16 percent, HSD increased 18 percent, and jet fuel imports surged 55 percent. The report also highlighted increasing reliance on imported fuels. Imported supplies accounted for 69 percent of motor spirit consumption, 30 percent of HSD demand and 32 percent of jet fuel consumption.

Infrastructure development continued throughout the year. Oil marketing companies expanded storage capacity to 0.98 million tons for motor spirit and 1.04 million tons for HSD. PSO remained the largest storage provider, followed by WEPL, APL, GO, Be Energy and PGL. Regionally, Punjab and Sindh accounted for the largest share of storage infrastructure, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan maintained comparatively smaller capacities.

Retail expansion also continued, with OMCs operating 11,957 outlets nationwide. PSO retained the largest retail network with 3,315 outlets, representing 26 percent of the total. GO, Askar Oil Services, PGL, APL and WEPL followed. Punjab accounted for 67 percent of outlets, Sindh 22 percent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 9 percent, and Balochistan 1 percent.

The report also reviewed developments in the gas sector. Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) and Sui Southern Gas Company Limited (SSGCL) together served 10.83 million consumers, supplying 3,335 MMCFD of gas. SSGCL served 3.2 million consumers across Sindh and Balochistan, while SNGPL supplied 7.3 million consumers across Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

Mari Energies Limited remained Pakistan's largest gas producer with a 31 percent market share while expanding into mining and exploration. Pakistan Petroleum Limited supplied 18 percent of domestic gas production and announced eight new discoveries, while Oil and Gas Development Company Limited reported significant reserves, expanded seismic activity and five new gas-condensate discoveries. According to the report, the fertilizer and power sectors performed strongly during the year. Fauji Fertilizer Company Limited achieved record turnover of Rs373.5 billion, contributing foreign exchange savings of US$1.4 billion, while Fatima Fertilizer strengthened supply chains through its three production facilities in Punjab.

Residential consumers continued to receive priority under the government's Load Management Policy. Fertilizer demand increased steadily, power sector consumption fluctuated, industrial gas use declined and transport sector demand also weakened. National gas supply reached 3,347 MMCFD, with 26 percent of supplies met through imported re-gasified liquefied natural gas (RLNG). LNG accounted for approximately 11 percent of Pakistan's total energy supply, while natural gas represented nearly 40 percent of national energy consumption.

Pakistan currently operates two LNG regasification terminals at Port Qasim in Karachi-Engro Elengy Terminal Limited, commissioned in 2015, and Pakistan GasPort Consortium Limited, commissioned in 2018-with a combined regasification capacity of 1.4 BCFD. During FY2024-25, EETL handled 72 LNG cargoes, while PGPCL handled 44 cargoes. OGRA has also granted construction licences to Tabeer Energy, Energas Terminal and Global Energy Infrastructure Pakistan for integrated LNG import and regasification projects at Port Qasim, which could add up to 2 BCFD of additional capacity once investment decisions are finalised.

The regulator said LNG virtual pipeline projects are also under development to transport LNG by sea, road and rail to consumers without conventional pipelines. Licences have been issued to five companies, with several projects progressing towards construction. In addition, OGRA has drafted the LNG Terminal and Storage Access Rules and Code, currently under federal government review. According to the report, the framework is intended to provide transparent, fair and non-discriminatory multi-user access to LNG terminals while promoting competition and strengthening supply security.

The report further stated that total LPG availability reached 2.4 million metric tonnes during FY2024-25. Domestic refineries and gas fields supplied 29 percent, while 71 percent came through imports. Average daily LPG consumption stood at around 6,500 metric tonnes, with households remaining the largest consumers, followed by commercial, industrial and emerging automotive users.

Although LPG accounts for only 2.7 percent of Pakistan's primary energy supply, the report concluded that it remains an essential fuel for households, businesses and industry, particularly during winter when demand for pipeline gas rises significantly.