Pakistan, an agrarian economy, is increasingly unable to feed itself without spending heavily abroad. Food imports rose by 11.66% to $9.15bn in the 2025-26 fiscal year, while food exports fell by 29.49% to $5.02bn, widening the food trade deficit to $4.13bn. The deterioration reflects a crisis in the farm sector that runs deeper than the current dispute over wheat prices, with growers squeezed by soaring input costs and disappointing crop returns.
Farmers face higher bills for fertiliser, electricity, diesel, machinery and labour. At the same time, prices for several crops have failed to deliver adequate returns. Cotton, sugarcane and potatoes have also suffered from weather damage, pests and volatile markets, leaving small and medium-sized growers struggling to stay profitable.
The import bill is dominated by cooking oil. Palm oil alone accounted for more than $3.8bn of purchases from abroad. Sugar imports also rose significantly as domestic production fell short of the country's needs. Exports have taken a heavy blow, with rice the biggest casualty. Earnings from rice shipments dropped by 31% to $2.29bn in 2025-26. India's return to world markets intensified competition and put Pakistani exporters under pressure.
A few categories bucked the trend. Meat exports rose by 7.1% to $530m, while fish exports edged up to $482.08m. Vegetable exports, however, plunged by more than 55%, wiping out much of the benefit from those modest gains.
Analysts argue that the export model itself is flawed. Pakistan continues to sell whatever agricultural surpluses it happens to produce, rather than developing targeted international markets for specific products. Weak productivity lies at the root of the problem. Many farmers rely on outdated methods, limited mechanisation and poor access to improved seeds. Inadequate storage and transport add to the damage, with post-harvest losses reaching 20-40% depending on the crop.
These weaknesses feed on one another. Low returns deprive farmers of the means to invest in better technology and equipment, which keeps productivity low, constrains supply and deepens dependence on imports. Breaking that cycle, critics contend, requires a long-term strategy. Proposed measures include promoting oilseed cultivation and climate-resilient seeds, and investing in irrigation, mechanisation, agricultural research and extension services.
Modern storage and cold chains could cut losses substantially, while export policy could encourage food processing, quality certification and value-added products. Such reforms, advocates argue, would raise farm incomes, reduce reliance on imports and restore competitiveness. Without them, Pakistan's farms risk producing ever less of what the country needs to eat.