Pakistan's petroleum import bill has declined modestly during the current fiscal year, but a rise in crude oil purchases alongside uneven trends across fuel categories points to a shifting energy demand rather than a decisive easing of external pressures.

According to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the total import bill for the petroleum group fell by 4.39 percent to $9.046 billion during July-January FY2025-26, compared with $9.462 billion in the same period last year.

The overall reduction was driven largely by a sharp contraction in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, which dropped by 26.20 percent to $1.625 billion. Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) purchases also declined by 4.98 percent to $609.843 million, while imports of refined petroleum products edged down by 1.81 percent to $3.428 billion.

In contrast, crude oil imports moved in the opposite direction. Purchases of petroleum crude rose by 8.22 percent, reaching $3.383 billion during the seven-month period, suggesting a possible shift toward domestic refining or changes in consumption patterns.

Short-term data indicates a sharper contraction in recent months. On a year-on-year basis, the petroleum import bill for January 2026 fell by 22.82 percent to $1.060 billion, down from $1.374 billion in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, imports declined even more steeply by 32.47 percent compared with December 2025 levels.

These divergent movements within the energy import basket highlight a complex adjustment. While reduced spending on gas and refined fuels has lowered the aggregate bill, increased reliance on crude oil signals evolving supply strategies rather than a broad-based decline in energy demand.

The data suggests that Pakistan's external account may be benefiting from selective compression in energy imports. Yet the underlying composition points to continued dependence on imported fuels, with adjustments occurring more in form than in scale.