Pakistan's current account slipped back into deficit in April 2026 as a sharp rise in imports overwhelmed modest export gains, exposing the economy's continued dependence on remittances and external financing to maintain stability amid growing pressure on the balance of payments. According to data released by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the country recorded a current account deficit of $324 million in April 2026, a substantial deterioration from the $12 million deficit registered in the same month last year. The latest reading also marked a reversal from March, when the external account had posted a surplus. The setback extended a broader weakening trend. During the first ten months of FY26, the cumulative current account balance stood at a deficit of $252 million, compared with a surplus of $1.66 billion during the corresponding period of the previous fiscal year. The principal driver of the deterioration was a resurgence in imports. Analysts linked the increase to improving domestic demand, the eas ing of restrictions on inflows and higher international commodity prices. Brokerage firm Arif Habib Limited noted that total imports expanded by 11.4% year-on-year in April, significantly outpacing export growth. Total imports climbed to $6.9 billion during the month, up from roughly $6.2 billion a year earlier. Exports, by contrast, rose only modestly to $3.47 billion from $3.36 billion in April 2025. A closer examination of the figures reveals a more concerning trend. Goods imports increased by 14% year-on-year, reflecting higher purchases of petroleum products, machinery, industrial raw materials and consumer goods. Meanwhile, merchandise exports declined by 2% compared with the same month last year, highlighting the persistent difficulties facing Pakistan's export sector. As a result, the trade deficit widened to $3.4 billion in April, representing an increase of 21% on an annual basis and 47% compared with March. The imbalance was not confined to a single month. During July-April FY26, total imports ro se to $63.1 billion from $58.1 billion in the same period a year earlier. Exports edged down by 0.7% to $34.1 billion from $34.3 billion, further illustrating the growing gap between foreign purchases and overseas sales. Despite these pressures, the external account continued to receive support from services exports and remittance inflows. Services exports increased by 22% year-on-year in April, aided largely by technology-related earnings. Telecommunications, computer and information services generated $423 million during the month, providing a valuable source of foreign exchange. Workers abroad also remained a critical pillar of external-sector stability. Secondary income reached $3.7 billion in April, an increase of 9% compared with a year earlier. Of this amount, remittances accounted for approximately $3.5 billion. Although remittance inflows were 11% higher than in April 2025, they declined by 7.6% from March, when overseas Pakistanis had sent home $3.8 billion. Even so, the broader trend remained po sitive. During the first ten months of FY26, remittances reached $33.9 billion, compared with $31.2 billion during the same period of the previous year. Another source of pressure emerged from primary income payments, which include profit repatriation and interest obligations. The primary income deficit widened to $657 million in April from $614 million a year earlier, reflecting increased external debt servicing and corporate outflows. Over the July-April period, however, the primary income deficit narrowed by 4% to $7 billion from $7.3 billion in the corresponding period of FY25. The financial account offered only limited relief. While it recorded a surplus of $206 million in April, cumulative inflows during the first ten months of FY26 slowed dramatically to just $12 million, compared with a surplus of $1.49 billion a year earlier. The decline points to weaker foreign investment and reduced financing inflows. Currency competitiveness also remained under scrutiny. The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), a key measure of external competitiveness, rose to 105.80 in April from 105.17 in March. The increase suggested that the rupee remained relatively overvalued against the currencies of Pakistan's trading partners. Analysts said the country's external position remains manageable for now, largely because of strong remittance flows and financing support linked to the International Monetary Fund programme. Nevertheless, they cautioned that sustained import growth without a corresponding increase in exports could heighten balance-of-payments risks in the months ahead. Elsewhere in financial markets, the rupee posted a marginal gain against the US dollar in the interbank market, closing at 278.60 compared with 278.61 in the previous session. Precious metals moved in the opposite direction. Gold prices in Pakistan rose by Rs900 per tola to Rs477,162, while the price of 10 grams increased by Rs772 to Rs409,089. The advance mirrored gains in international markets, where gold prices climbed by $9 per ounce to $4,548 p er ounce, including a premium of $20. Silver prices in the domestic market also increased, rising by Rs26 to Rs8,099 per tola. The latest current account figures suggest that Pakistan's external sector remains heavily reliant on remittances and services exports to offset a widening trade imbalance. Unless export growth strengthens materially, rising imports could once again become a significant source of vulnerability for the economy.
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