Pakistan's food trade balance has come under mounting strain, as a sharp rise in edible oil imports coincides with a steep decline in food exports, highlighting growing external vulnerabilities in the agricultural sector.
Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics shows that palm oil imports surged by 24.28 percent during the first seven months of FY2025-26, reaching 2.182 million metric tons valued at $2.35 billion. This increase contrasts sharply with a significant contraction in soyabean oil imports, which fell by 42.27 percent to 85,771 metric tons, costing $94.99 million.
The shift suggests a changing composition of edible oil consumption, with palm oil increasingly dominating import demand. A year earlier, soyabean oil imports stood at 94,991 metric tons valued at $164.55 million, indicating a notable reduction in both volume and value in the current period.
At the same time, Pakistan's food export performance has weakened considerably. Outbound shipments of food commodities dropped by 35.21 percent, falling to $2.988 billion during July-January FY2025-26, compared with $4.613 billion in the corresponding period last year.
Despite this overall decline, monthly figures show some recovery. Food exports rose to $624.4 million in January 2026 from $405.9 million in December 2025, suggesting a short-term rebound after a prolonged slump.
On the import side, the broader food bill continues to climb. Total food imports increased by 19.26 percent to $5.502 billion in the first seven months of the fiscal year, up from $4.613 billion a year earlier. Monthly imports also edged higher, reaching $871.5 million in January 2026 compared with $783.4 million in December.
The divergence between rising imports and falling exports points to a widening gap in the country's food trade dynamics. While edible oil purchases remain essential to meet domestic consumption needs, the decline in export earnings reduces the sector's contribution to foreign exchange inflows.
Taken together, these trends underline a growing imbalance. Increased reliance on imported commodities, coupled with weakening export performance, signals mounting pressure on Pakistan's external accounts and raises questions about the sustainability of its food trade structure.