Pakistan’s population could reach 390m by 2050, and a minister has warned that the country cannot support that number without changing its growth model. Muhammad Ali, federal minister and adviser to the prime minister on privatisation, told the Leaders in Islamabad Business Summit on Thursday that Pakistan must create technology rather than simply use it. He said the country needs to turn its workforce and infrastructure into productive capacity.

He said this would require large companies able to compete internationally, a strong education system and equal participation in the workforce. Cities should become centres of production, and young people should be trained in skills the economy will need. He also argued that long-term planning is essential and that the state must provide education, healthcare, justice, security and basic goods and services.

Mr Ali said the economy had improved recently. He said the super tax had been abolished at the private sector’s request, interest rates and inflation had fallen and the currency had stabilised. He cited the privatisation of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) as an example of ministries and agencies working together. Part of the sale proceeds went to the government, while most was used to revive the airline. He said future privatisations should follow the same approach.

Bilal Azhar Kayani, minister of state for finance and railways, said Pakistan needs structural reforms and better governance, which requires coordination between federal and provincial governments. He said the country must stop overspending and then seeking IMF loans. He added that policy should be developed with the private sector, which was why super taxes were reduced last year. He said the government is improving access to finance for farmers and small businesses and reforming institutions such as SMEDA.

Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar, a former caretaker prime minister, said security problems must be addressed through structural reforms. He noted that other countries affected by serious violence have still built large export industries. Pakistan, he argued, should address the economic constraints holding it back rather than blaming terrorism for weak growth.

Musadik Malik, the climate change minister, called for policy continuity and an end to elite capture. He said policies designed to benefit elites always lead to exploitation. Instead, he argued, a broad consensus should create a fair system based on skills and merit, and talented university graduates should not face unnecessary obstacles.

Business leaders focused on AI. Aamir Ibrahim, chief executive of Jazz and chairman of Mobilink Bank, JazzCash and TPL Insurance, said about $3trn has been spent worldwide on “AI factories”. He argued that Pakistan needs effective AI policies and coordinated investment in data centres, AI infrastructure and digital access to take part in the next stage of the digital economy. Asif Ahmed, PTCL Group’s chief business solutions officer, said faster computing, internet connectivity, data and cooling systems are now making AI agents possible.

Representatives of international development institutions described both opportunities and serious weaknesses. Saman Endrieu, identified as a regional director at the International Finance Corporation (IFC), said Pakistan has strong potential in tourism, education, high-value exports and technology but remains far behind the global economy. He said about 40% of crops are wasted and that water shortages are hurting farmers. Investment in agriculture, he argued, could raise farm incomes.

Dr Samuel Rizk, also identified as an IFC regional director, said Pakistan’s economy could reach $1trn by 2035. However, he noted that it remains a low-income economy and that poverty, education and employment have worsened over the past three years.

The summit, organised by Nutshell Group, ended after discussions on growth, the private sector, exports, technology, AI, infrastructure and structural reform. Speakers broadly agreed on the need for change, but the gap between a projected $1trn economy and worsening poverty shows how much remains to be done.