Business News Pakistan 2014-09-24 15:49:28

KASB Securities Limited and Economics Research – Commodities Corner

Karachi, September 24, 2014 (PPI-OT): Commodities higher amid geo-political tensions in Syria

– Gold up from eight and a half month low: Gold prices advanced from an eight month low after airstrikes in Syria boosted the metal’s safe haven demand. However, ETF fund outflow kept gold prices in check as investors adjust positions on concerns of higher US interest rates and strength in the UD Dollar.

– Oil supported by airstrikes in Syria: WTI prices advanced after the US and its Arab allies attacked Islamic State positions in Syria. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Bahrain participated in strikes against 14 Islamic State targets near their stronghold of Raqqa, as well as along the Iraqi border.

Time        Currency    Impact      Event                         Forecast       Previous

24th September 2014 Wednesday

7:00pm      USD         High        New Home Sales                   432K          412K
7:30pm      USD         Medium      Crude Oil Inventories            0.7M          3.7M
9:05pm      USD         Medium      FOMC Member Mester Speaks           -             -

25th September 2014 Thursday

5:30pm      USD         High        Core Durable Goods Orders        0.7%         -0.7%
5:30pm      USD         High        Durable Goods Orders m/m       -17.7%         22.6%
5:30pm      USD         High        Unemployment Claims              294K          280K

Gold Spot

Technical Strategy: Play the range

Gold closed at US$1,224, below the 10 – DMA which is at US$1,229. However, RSI and Stochastic are oversold and suggest that the downside is limited. KASB Securities Limited recommends playing the range of US$1,214 (yesterday’s low) – US$1,228. A break below US$1,214 can target US$1,204 (lower Bollinger), while a break above US$1,228 can target US$1,235 (yesterday’s high).

Silver Spot

Technical Strategy: Play the range

Silver closed at US$17.75, below the 5 – DMA which is at US$18.04. However, RSI and Stochastic are oversold and suggest that the downside is limited. KASB Securities Limited recommends playing the range of US$17.60 (yesterday’s low) – US$18.04. A break below US$17.60 can target US$17.31 (weekly low), while a break above US$18.04 can target US$18.23.

WTI Spot (Crude Oil)

Technical Strategy: Play the range

Oil closed at US$91.58, below the 15 – DMA which is at US$92.38. However, RSI and Stochastic are bullish and suggest that the downside is limited. KASB Securities Limited recommends playing the range of US$91.00 – US$92.38. A break below US$91.00 can target US$90.39; while a break above US$92.38 can target US$92.94 (20 – DMA).

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